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Hydrologic connectivity refers to the processes and thresholds leading to water transport across a landscape. In dryland ecosystems, runoff production is mediated by the arrangement of vegetation and bare soil patches on hillslopes and the properties of ephemeral channels. In this study, we used runoff measurements at multiple scales in a small (4.67 ha) mixed shrubland catchment of the Chihuahuan Desert to identify controls on and thresholds of hillslope‐channel connectivity. By relating short‐ and long‐term hydrologic records, we also addressed whether observed changes in outlet discharge since 1977 were linked to modifications in hydrologic connectivity. Hillslope runoff production was controlled by the maximum rainfall intensity occurring in a 30‐min interval (I₃₀), with small‐to‐negligible effects of antecedent surface soil moisture, vegetation cover, or slope aspect. AnI₃₀threshold of nearly 10 mm/h activated runoff propagation from the shrubland hillslopes and through the main ephemeral channel, whereas anI₃₀threshold of about 16 mm/h was required for discharge from the catchment outlet. Since storms rarely exceedI₃₀, full hillslope‐channel connectivity occurs infrequently in the mixed shrubland, leading to <2% of the annual precipitation being converted into outlet discharge. Progressive decreases in outlet discharge since 1977 could not be explained by variations in precipitation metrics, includingI₃₀, or the process of woody plant encroachment. Instead, channel modifications from the buildup of sediment behind measurement flumes may have increased transmission losses and reduced outlet discharge. Thus, alterations in channel properties can play an important role in the long‐term (45‐year) variations of rainfall–runoff dynamics of small desert catchments.

 

In drylands, most studies of extreme precipitation events examine effects of individual years or short-term events, yet multiyear periods (>3 y) are expected to have larger impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to take advantage of a sequence of multiple long-term (4-y) periods (dry, wet, average) that occurred naturally within a 26-y time frame to examine responses of plant species richness to extreme rainfall in grasslands and shrublands of the Chihuahuan Desert. Our hypothesis was that richness would be related to rainfall amount, and similar in periods with similar amounts of rainfall. Breakpoint analyses of water-year precipitation showed five sequential periods (1993–2018): AVG1 (mean = 22 cm/y), DRY1 (mean = 18 cm/y), WET (mean = 30 cm/y), DRY2 (mean = 18 cm/y), and AVG2 (mean = 24 cm/y). Detailed analyses revealed changes in daily and seasonal metrics of precipitation over the course of the study: the amount of nongrowing season precipitation decreased since 1993, and summer growing season precipitation increased through time with a corresponding increase in frequency of extreme rainfall events. This increase in summer rainfall could explain the general loss in C3 species after the wet period at most locations through time. Total species richness in the wet period was among the highest in the five periods, with the deepest average storm depth in the summer and the fewest long duration (>45 day) dry intervals across all seasons. For other species-ecosystem combinations, two richness patterns were observed. Compared to AVG2, AVG1 had lower water-year precipitation yet more C3 species in upland grasslands, creosotebush, and mesquite shrublands, and more C4 perennial grasses in tarbush shrublands. AVG1 also had larger amounts of rainfall and more large storms in fall and spring with higher mean depths of storm and lower mean dry-day interval compared with AVG2. While DRY1 and DRY2 had the same amount of precipitation, DRY2 had more C4 species than DRY1 in creosote bush shrublands, and DRY1 had more C3 species than DRY2 in upland grasslands. Most differences in rainfall between these periods occurred in the summer. Legacy effects were observed for C3 species in upland grasslands where no significant change in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET compared with a 41% loss of species from the WET to DRY2 period. The opposite asymmetry pattern was found for C4 subdominant species in creosote bush and mesquite shrublands, where an increase in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET followed by no change in richness from WET to DRY2. Our results show that understanding plant biodiversity of Chihuahuan Desert landscapes as precipitation continues to change will require daily and seasonal metrics of rainfall within a wet-dry period paradigm, as well as a consideration of species traits (photosynthetic pathways, lifespan, morphologies). Understanding these relationships can provide insights into predicting species-level dynamics in drylands under a changing climate. 

Irrigation in agricultural and urban settings is responsible for nearly 80% of the water use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. Over the last three decades, there has been a continuous decrease in cropland area and its water consumption. Meanwhile, urbanization has increased outdoor irrigation to maintain residential areas and parks. Given these trends, irrigation water use (IWU) is subject to large uncertainties which challenge land and water management. In this work, we used a land surface model with an irrigation module to quantify urban and agricultural IWU under the individualized and combined effects of future urban growth and anticipated climate change. A large set of scenario combinations (96 in total) allowed us to bracket plausible pathways of IWU change in the 21st Century. We found that land use change reduced IWU by −4.6% to −0.1% due to savings from crop‐urban conversion, while climate change effects led to increases in IWU by +3.8% to +8.6%. When combined, total IWU changed from +2.5% to +5.8% in the intermediate future (2041–2070) and from −0.5% to 6.8% in the far future (2071–2100). These outcomes suggest that water savings from land use change will likely not be able to compensate for the increasing demand from urban irrigation when considering climate change, under current irrigation practices. Our approach to model the interconnections between land and water under climate change can be used to support sustainable water planning in cities in other arid regions.

 

Earth systems models require gridded land surface properties to compute fluxes of water, energy, and carbon within the landscape and to the atmosphere. However, most parameter sets contain time-invariant properties despite their known variability. Here we present new MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land surface parameters (MOD-LSP) formatted for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model that account for seasonal and interannual variability and longer-term change over the continental United States, Mexico, and southern Canada at 0.0625° spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution. MOD-LSP improves over previously-available parameter sets via: (1) land cover maps of higher native spatial resolution; (2) multiple versions corresponding to the land cover of years 1992, 2001, and 2011; (3) spatially-explicit mean annual cycles of land surface properties, including leaf area index, canopy fraction, and albedo, derived from 17 years of observations; and (4) additional 17-year time series of these properties. The MOD-LSP parameters are useful as inputs to the VIC model, as an example land surface scheme, to assess the hydrologic impacts of land cover change from interannual to decadal scales; and as stand-alone datasets characterizing the temporal variability of these properties as a function of land cover class.